TrendForce experts have changed their forecast for the growth of prices for SSDs in the III quarter of 2021. If earlier they assumed that everything would cost 5-10% growth in the corporate segment, now they are betting at 10-15%. Consumer SSD will rise in price by 3-8%.
SSD will not get cheaper
Solid-state drives (SSD) will actively rise in price in the foreseeable future. This forecast was voiced by TrendForce analysts, adding that the situation with rising prices will affect not only corporate SSDs , which are of little interest to ordinary users, but also standard consumer-grade drives.
According to TrendForce experts, the upcoming rise in prices will not keep you waiting. Prices will creep up in the third quarter of 2021, which begins on July 1, 2021.
Analysts associate what is happening with two global factors. The first is the global shortage of semiconductor components caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
The second factor is the growing demand for solid-state drives, the reason for which is not explained by TrendForce. The company only cites the example of data centers, which significantly increased the volume of purchases of 8-terabyte SSD enterprise level.
What to prepare for
In the third quarter of 2021, what is happening in the world will hit the prices of corporate solid state drives the most. In their forecast, TrendForce analysts claim that they will grow by 10-15% compared to the third quarter of 2020.
It should be noted that experts at the beginning of 2021 pointed to an increase in the cost of corporate SSDs in the third quarter. However, at that time, they believed that prices would rise by 5-10%, no more.
The situation with consumer-grade drives is a little less bleak. TrendForce emphasizes that the increased demand for laptops, also provoked by the pandemic, will play a significant role in the rise in prices.
Coupled with the semiconductor crisis, this demand will drive the cost of custom SSDs by at least 3%. The maximum, according to TrendForce, their price will grow by 8% depending on the manufacturer, model and distribution network.
Who will win
Rising prices automatically leave all buyers on the losing side. Whether it’s a company or a regular user, they’ll have to spend more money on new SSDs.
It is not yet known how the market situation, especially the shortage of semiconductors, will affect manufacturers. TrendForce analysts believe that at least one of them can still benefit.
The company’s report refers to Samsung, the Korean tech giant. The company has its own production lines producing chips, and only it, in addition to TSMC, has its own 5-nanometer pipelines. This advantage could allow it to grow its share of the global SSD market.
In addition, Samsung products are expected to account for more than 50% of enterprise SSDs (bits) shipped to data centers in North America in Q3 2021. This dominance is likely to strengthen Samsung’s ability to dictate market prices for corporate SSDs in the future.
What’s with other companies
Enterprise-grade SSDs are not only produced by Samsung, they are also in the assortment, for example, Intel. However, it now suffers from a shortage of power management integrated circuits (PMICs), which is affecting the volume of its own SSDs.
In addition, as TrendForce writes in its report, Intel now mainly fulfills orders for products with QLC memory chips. As a result, its market share could potentially decrease in the enterprise SSD sector, which is dominated by models with TLC memory.
As for other suppliers, including Kioxia and SK Hynix, they were able to increase their market share thanks to the gradual increase in demand. However, the likelihood that they will catch up with Samsung in the near future is small.
What else affects the cost of an SSD
There is another significant factor affecting the rise in the cost of all solid state drives. This is the Chia cryptocurrency, which, unlike bitcoin and other tokens, needs to be mined using SSDs or hard drives.
Chia is the creation of American developer Bram Cohen , creator of the legendary BitTorrent protocol. It is used by modern torrent trackers.
For the first time, Chia became known in mid-April 2021. Almost immediately, its appearance led to an increase in SSD prices and their shortage in Hong Kong.
News wrote that Chia destroys SSD drives in a matter of days due to the increased load on them. This can lead to increased demand for storage, shortages and price spikes.
At the same time, it is financially unprofitable to save SSD for miners. According to CoinMarketCap, at the time of publication of the material, the cost of one Chia coin was about $ 688 (50.3 thousand rubles at the Central Bank exchange rate as of June 4, 2021).
Chia trading began in early May 2021. Within a month, its rate underwent a collapse – on May 3, 2021, this token cost $ 1,596 (116.8 thousand rubles), and a few hours later it rose in price to $ 1,749 (128 thousand rubles). ).
But even at the current rate, a single Chia coin can cover the costs of purchasing multiple SSDs. For example, a 1-terabyte Western Digital Blue WDS100T2B0A drive in a 2.5-inch case cost about 9,500 rubles as of June 4, 2021.